MEMO: Two Weeks Out

Out on the Trail: The Final Two Weeks

• Kathy Hochul has kept a tireless schedule that has focused on governing and delivering results for New Yorkers, while also hitting the campaign trail to meet with voters and earn their support. 
• In total, she has already held more than 65 campaign events in the general election, including more than 47 events in just September and October. 
• In the final two weeks of this campaign, Kathy Hochul has all the momentum and will continue to connect with voters in communities across the city and state.
  • She will participate in her third debate of the year and first debate against Lee Zeldin, now that he has accepted her offer. 
  • The campaign has a robust GOTV schedule criss-crossing New York, including stops in Buffalo, Syracuse, the Hudson Valley, Long Island, New York City and more.
  • The governor will continue her long-standing, faith-based outreach efforts by attending religious services throughout New York City and on Long Island.
  • She will host canvass launches, including multiple Spanish-language canvasses, visit subways and diners, walk through local downtowns, and rally with voters throughout the next two weeks — motivating her base and ensuring New Yorkers understand the stakes of this election. 

Voter Outreach: Reaching New Yorkers Wherever They Are

• The New York Democratic Party has established a coordinated campaign that includes more than 50 organizing staff members across the state working out of 19 field offices, and has activated over 1,000 unique volunteers to knock doors and make phone calls.
  • This is a much larger organizing staff operation than in previous years, emphasizing the campaign’s commitment to connecting with New Yorkers on the ground.
• There are 58 GOTV Staging Locations across 23 counties where door-to-door canvassing events will take place from now through Election Day.
• In the final month of the campaign alone, the campaign will exceed four million voter contacts. The campaign will have made over one million phone calls in the final month and will have knocked on over half a million doors.
  • The Hochul campaign will also send millions of person-to-person texts in the final ten days of the race. 

Fundraising: Raising the Resources Necessary to Win

• After becoming Governor in August 2021, Kathy Hochul quickly raised the resources to win a competitive Democratic primary in June. She entered the general election with $11.7 million cash on hand.
• As of the latest public filing in early October, the Hochul campaign has raised over $45 million and entered the final month of the campaign with nearly $11 million in cash on hand.
• This funding has proven critical given the extremely high cost of communicating in New York statewide and given the unprecedented outside spending against the governor in the form of negative, false attack ads on television. 
  • For every dollar that the campaign spends on television, outside independent expenditure groups must spend $1.30 to match. 
• In the final two weeks, the governor’s formidable warchest will amplify her message on the airwaves and serve as a firewall against billionaire-backed outside groups. 

Unprecedented Billionaire Outside Spending Against Governor Hochul

• Governor Hochul has faced more outside spending than any other statewide Democrat in New York.
  • Billionaire Trump-supporters have spent a combined $11.8 million in independent expenditures on behalf of Lee Zeldin, spewing false, fear mongering ads against the governor.
  • The next highest expenditures against a statewide Democrat were both against Andrew Cuomo. In 2018, only $4.1 million was spent against him, and in 2014 only $2 million was spent against him by outside groups.

Paid Communication: Delivering Kathy’s Message to Voters

• Since Labor Day, Kathy Hochul’s campaign has invested over $20 million in a multi-layered, bilingual paid communication program statewide.
• Specifically, this advertising has spanned across broadcast, cable, and streaming television – in both English and Spanish. 
  • Notably, Kathy Hochul is the only candidate in the governor’s race communicating on Spanish language TV, and has been doing so for the entire nine weeks that television ads have been running in the general election.
• The campaign has also invested in targeted communications, like radio and digital advertising on Facebook and YouTube, focusing on turning out and persuading key groups like Democrats, women, and voters of color.
• The New York Democratic Party has also run an expansive mail program, speaking to New Yorkers across the state, including a focus on female, Black, Latino, and AAPI voters.

Early Vote To Date: Absentee Ballot Returns

• The New York Democratic Party made investments in a robust absentee ballot recruitment and chase program, sending absentee ballot applications to more than 1.9 million low to medium turnout Democratic voters.
• To date, more than 86,000 registered Democrats have returned their absentee ballots.
• Democrats are showing early signs of enthusiasm, outnumbering Republicans by almost a 3-to-1 margin in absentee returns, with women making up 60% of the returned ballots.

With two weeks to go before election day, Kathy Hochul remains the clear front runner in this race. The campaign will continue to communicate directly with voters, highlighting the governor’s strong, effective leadership and offering a clear contrast with Lee Zeldin. Governor Hochul has proven time and again that she is prepared to meet the moment and has the experience, compassion, and work ethic to deliver results.With one of largest paid field operations in state history and targeted paid media efforts, we are working to earn every vote. These critical investments have helped create a strong pathway to victory in multiple turnout scenarios.

In all public and private polling, Kathy Hochul has the support in New York City, the suburban communities of Long Island and the Hudson Valley and in upstate New York to win. She continues to have a high consolidation of support with Democrats and holds her own with Independent voters. The governor’s support has continued to grow with women, Black voters, Latino voters, and college-educated voters statewide.

In every election, public polls are released and provide contradictory narratives about the trajectory of campaigns, making it difficult for observers and the media to decipher what’s happening. Recent days have been no exception in the race for Governor of New York, as a variety of polls have surfaced in this race, including outlier polling that predict a tighter race.

Even if the governor were to earn the low levels of City support outlined in these outlier polls, Governor Hochul’s strong performance in suburban and upstate New York will deliver her the victory. Across the average of the four non-partisan recent public polls, Kathy Hochul is statistically tied in suburban New York (Hochul 47%, Zeldin 48%) and trails Zeldin upstate by just 7 points (43-50%). Even in more pessimistic models of the New York City vote, Governor Hochul is polling well enough outside of New York City to prevail.

Across the board, the governor is being recognized for her leadership and ability to deliver results for New Yorkers. In her New York Times endorsement, the paper said, “Ms. Hochul has set aside political drama to make progress on the things that matter most to New Yorkers — health, safety and access to good jobs and housing.” Economic Development

Since taking office, Governor Hochul has brought hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs to New York, cut taxes and lowered costs for working families, and made child care more accessible and affordable. She has secured major investments in our state’s future, including landing the largest private economic investment in New York State’s history— a transformational public-private partnership with Micron Technology that will create nearly 50,000 new jobs and invest up to $100 billion in our state. She also signed first-in-the-nation Green CHIPS legislation and made a nation-leading $500 million investment in offshore wind, securing New York’s place as a leader in the growing green energy economy. The governor has met the moment and delivered real results that working families across New York can feel, and when elected to a full term, she will continue her work to make our state more affordable for all.

Public Safety & Gun Violence Prevention

Keeping New Yorkers safe is Governor Hochul’s top priority. In the wake of the horrific mass shooting in Buffalo, she passed a nation-leading package of bills to prevent gun violence in our communities by strengthening red flag laws, raising the age to buy a semi-automatic rifle, and investing hundreds of millions into anti-violence programs. And when the conservative Supreme Court overturned New York’s concealed carry law, Governor Hochul convened a special session of the legislature to pass common-sense gun safety measures. She also made targeted changes to bail reform, closing loopholes for repeat offenders, going after illegal guns, and addressing hate crimes. The work is far from done and Governor Hochul will continue working with law enforcement and every elected leader to keep our communities safe. 

Protecting New Yorkers’ Rights

In preparation for the Supreme Court’s reckless decision to strip away women’s abortion rights, Governor Hochul stepped up to ensure New York will be a safe harbor for women seeking abortion care. She created a nation-leading $35 million fund to support abortion providers and required that all insurance plans cover abortion services ensuring access for patients seeking care. The governor also worked with the legislature to pass crucial legislation that protects the right of patients to access reproductive health care, and began the process of enshrining the right to an abortion into the New York State Constitution.

Investing in Education

Governor Hochul believes that every student deserves a world-class education and has delivered unprecedented support for New York’s public schools. Her budget made the largest investment in state history in education, $31.5 billion for school aid, with record totals for underfunded and underserved communities and significant increases for non-public schools. Governor Hochul also enacted a historic expansion of the State’s Tuition Assistance Program, with $150 million for part-time students at state universities, and made strategic investments in both SUNY and CUNY. She also took action to address New York’s teacher shortage by incentivizing teaching as a profession and creating a robust pipeline for future educators.